It is vital to keep our economic forecasts and waste management strategies flexible and responsive to what is happening in the world. By staying attuned to these trends, we can better prepare for the demands of waste and recycling disposal.
By Patricia A. Hall
A deep dive into the correlation between economic factors and waste tonnages began with a simple question. Why are curbside tonnages continuously going down? Our budget analyst at the City of Cedar Rapids, IA asked this question month after month while doing our monthly budget audit. I honestly did not have a great answer. I expressed that maybe it is the reduced weight of the packaging, or possibly financial constraints preventing residents from purchasing items. I discovered it was the latter of the two potential prospects that turned out to lead down a long rabbit hole. It began by innocently looking at our data for a correlation of inflation on curbside tonnages. The deeper I dove, the more I found. Not only were inflation rates an indicator, but so were unemployment rates. Once I discovered the potential correlation, I decided to dive even deeper. Were we the only ones experiencing this phenomenon?
Key Factors
When we talk about the economy, a couple of key players that come up are unemployment and inflation. It is interesting to see how these factors impact our waste and recycling tonnages. What I found was that there is an inverse relationship between them. Basically, when unemployment goes up or inflation spikes, people tend to produce less waste and recycling. Think about it: when the economy is booming and people have jobs and extra cash in their pockets, they are out shopping more, indulging in takeout, and buying new stuff. That means more online shopping packaging, more leftovers, and generally more waste and recycling to deal with. On the other hand, when the economy takes a hit鈥攍ike during a recession鈥攑eople tighten their budgets. Less money means less consumption, which leads to less waste and less recycling.
Prior to COVID, we were seeing a steady year-over-year growth in waste and recycling tonnage. Then, when the pandemic hit, we experienced an unprecedented spike in curbside collections as everyone had a newfound love for online shopping and home projects while they sheltered in place. However, as the economy shifted and inflation surged to levels we had not seen in decades, we started to see a decline in those curbside tonnages. At first thought, it seemed like waste would be heading back to commercial facilities as people returned to work, but I wanted to dig a little deeper into this theory. So, I reached out to some local landfills to check out their waste tonnage data, expecting to see a spike in incoming waste. To my surprise, they reported a decline in waste tonnage as well. This got me thinking about the economic correlation here鈥攎aybe the shift in waste patterns is tied to broader changes in consumption and economic factors (see Figures 1 and 2).


Graphs courtesy of Patricia A. Hall.
Additional Correlations
I started to dig a little deeper. I looked through past data during the 2008 recession to try and find any potential correlations. I wanted to see if there was a pattern or something I could tie to the downward trend in our waste and recycling tonnages. What I found was unemployment had a significant impact on waste and recycling tonnages. During the 2008 fiscal year, there was a 2.4 percent drop in waste tonnages and a 0.40 percent drop in recycling tonnage. The following fiscal year saw a 0.90 percent decrease in waste tonnage and a 6 percent decrease in recycling tonnage. Year over year there were decreases in waste and recycling tonnages until 2014 when unemployment rates returned to pre-recession levels. During the 2014 fiscal year, we saw a 1 percent increase in waste tonnage and a 0.25 percent increase in recycling tonnage. What I also found was when median household incomes returned to pre-recession levels in 2016, we had a 5.4 percent increase in waste tonnage and a 1.3 percent increase in recycling tonnage. The pattern of economic prosperity and waste generation rates started to take shape (see Figures 3 and 4).


After finding these trends and patterns from the 2008 recession, I started to graph unemployment rates with our waste and recycling tonnages. I did not see the same correlation during the COVID pandemic. Actually, I found the opposite. When our waste and recycling tonnages were at all-time highs, so was unemployment. This deviated from what I found during the 2008 recession. Maybe I was wrong about my theory. Then I remembered during the pandemic, COVID relief money and expanded unemployment benefits made households flush with cash even though people were not working. So, I was back on track of trying to find a relationship to our current tonnage decreases. What else could impact the economy and what was happening at that time? Inflation was at levels we had not seen in decades. I graphed inflation in our curbside tonnages and found the culprit. As unemployment benefits and relief money faded, inflation took center stage. While inflation kept climbing, our tonnages kept going down. Year after year we saw significant decreases in our waste and recycling tonnages. In fiscal year 2022, we saw a 7.2 percent decrease in waste tonnage and a 9.6 percent decrease in recycling tonnage. During this fiscal year, inflation spiked to a high of 8 percent. The following fiscal years we saw continued decreases, but at lower percents, as inflation eased (see Figures 5 and 6).


Predicting Future Trends
So how do we use these correlations? By using past data, we can predict future trends in waste generation and recycling rates, allowing municipalities and organizations to better prepare for changes in waste management needs. Analyzing historical trends alongside economic indicators such as unemployment rates and inflation provides valuable insights into how local economies influence waste production. For instance, during periods of economic growth, increased consumption often leads to higher waste tonnages, while economic downturns may result in decreased waste generation. This can allow for better budgeting. For example, as a landfill, when the economy is up and tonnage is up, it might be time to budget for those large purchases you have been eyeing, as it indicates a period of less financial constraint. Conversely, if the economy is down and waste piles are shrinking, it could be a sign to put off those big-ticket items (Figures 7, 8, and 9).



When comparing our waste tonnages from calendar years 2023 to 2024, I noticed we saw a 2.6 percent growth for the calendar year 2024. That is not what I would have expected based on the trends we have seen over the past three to four years. Our Budget Analyst, when looking at the short-term historical data, suggested we plan for a conservative 2 percent decrease in landfill disposal fees for the upcoming fiscal year 2026 budget. That made sense at first, given the assumption that we were on a downward trend in waste and recycling tonnages.
After digging a little deeper, it became clear that we are looking at a projected 4 percent increase in waste tonnage for the next fiscal year, which is a big shift from what we would have anticipated. By using past economic data trends and curbside tonnages, I was able to predict that the economy will be on the rise. How? By looking at inflation rates and unemployment rates. As inflation has leveled out and unemployment remains low, we can expect to see tonnages go up in the coming year. Those historical numbers from the smaller window made it easy to assume we would continue declining, but without that more thorough economic analysis, we could have messed up our budget and ended up in a budget shortfall for disposal fees.
This experience underscores how vital it is to keep our economic forecasts and waste management strategies flexible and responsive to what is happening in the world. By staying attuned to these trends, we can better prepare for the demands of waste and recycling disposal. | WA
Patricia A. Hall is the Solid Waste & Recycling Manager for the City of Cedar Rapids, IA. With more than 12 years of experience in solid waste management, Patricia is a University of Iowa graduate with a degree in Environmental Science. Her professional journey includes two years of landfill management, where she honed her waste disposal and environmental compliance skills, followed by three years managing a transfer station, optimizing operations, and improving efficiency. Additionally, Patricia has spent seven years overseeing curbside collection management, focusing on enhancing service delivery and community engagement. Patricia鈥檚 diverse background in the solid waste sector equips her with a comprehensive understanding of sustainable waste practices and the importance of effective resource management. She can be reached at (319) 286-5897 or e-mail [email protected]